What's happening? This is a simple question that I get asked over and over again, and I surmise it by trying to ascertain in which direction we are heading as a country, financially, fiscally etc... There is a myriad of financial blogs, discussions, ideas that are available for our leisure to sift through and if you listen long enough we are either on the verge of collapse or a charging bull market that will lead us to new pinnacles. However which one is it? Are things getting better or are they getting worse?
I will make my first case on why things are getting better in this post. On a later post, I will follow up on why things are getting worse, backed up by my analysis and then trying to narrow the focus to more specified topical material and honed analysis.
So why are things getting better, well lets talk about the growth in some of the financial markets for starters. The S&P 500 has increased from a low of 676.53 on March 9th 2009 to 1320.02 in 2011, which gives us a 95% increase exclusive of dividends. Corporate profits have surged and rebounded strongly from the doldrums of the 2008 financial panic and retail sales increased from $41.5 billion to $44.1 billion from 2009 to 2010 and online retail sales grew 16.3% in Q4. The S&P has faced the mighty headwinds of Middle East unrest, surging commodity prices as well as the massive Japan quake and nuclear aftermath, without sinking significantly. Sufficient to say it is the best of times right? Well Dickens gives us two sides of the story and in light of improvements depending on your paradigm it could be the worst of times. However, we shall save that for a later writing where we will dig into the marrow of the matter and try to view through a clearer lens and try to mitigate some noise.
